Why APC Can't Enroll 100 Million Members

February 6, Senate President Ahmad Lawan rashly announced that his party, All Peoples' Congress, currently in the midst of refreshing it's membership rolls, will sign up 100 million members! Here's the simply arithmetic why that is a pipe dream.

Nigeria's current population is generally projected to be 206 million. Though the actual is closer to 222.7 million, given the annual growth rate decided by the National Population Commission, NPopC after the 2006 census, it is inconceivable even in communist China for a single party to register 45-50% of the population as its membership. And Nigeria has 18 political parties, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.

Nigeria's demographics are disseminated by NPopC and quoted in international population reports such as Statista. In 2020, half of the country's population was aged under 19 years, ineligible to be party members. So, eligible adults who could belong to any political party in 2021 are 111.3 million.

Since party registration is at the ward level, which party controls each state is important. The APC controls 18 of the 36 states and FCT ((37). By simple arithmetic, the party can only address a theoretical audience of 54.2 million.

Only half the eligible population actually register to vote and less than 30% actually vote. It is inconceivable that a political party will register members and its members do not vote. As such the registration level is far below the voting level -- generally in the region of 7 to 12%.

So, APC can hope to register at best 6.5 million Nigerians nationwide.

 

References:

Nigeria population and political participation. https://www.slideshare.net/statisense/nigeriapopulationandpoliticalparticipation

List of 18 APC State Governors in Nigeria, 2021. https://nigerianinfopedia.com.ng/apc-state-governors-in-nigeria/

Age distribution of population in Nigeria in 2019, by gender. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121317/age-distribution-of-population-in-nigeria-by-gender/

Registered Political Parties In Nigeria, 2021. https://nigerianinfopedia.com.ng/full-list-of-registered-political-parties-in-nigeria/

Why Nigeria’s Pop is 205.5m, not 198m. https://blog.ginja.me/index.php?post/2020/12/11/Why-Nigeria%E2%80%99s-Pop-is-205.5m%2C-not-198m

APC Membership Registration: We targeting 100 million Nigerians — Senate President https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/02/apc-membership-registration-we-targeting-100-million-nigerians-senate-president/


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